[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 24 10:03:21 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
and is expected to remain that way for the next three days. Under 
the influence of a coronal hole the solar wind remains mildly 
elevated (near 450km/s) with the IMF Bz component fluctuating 
between +/-5 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22122322
      Darwin               5   21212221
      Townsville           8   22222322
      Learmonth            8   21122332
      Camden               6   11112322
      Canberra             8   -----321
      Hobart               5   11112321
      Casey(Ant)          10   33-32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               7   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0022 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     5    Quiet 
25 Feb     3    Quiet 
26 Feb     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet over the 
UT day with an Unsettled period near 1600UT in response to a 
period of sustained southwards IMF. Generally Quiet conditions 
expected next three days. Periods of Unsettled to Active conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Feb   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Feb   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over 
the last 24 hours with just some minor MUF depressions observed 
during the day. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
for the next three days with continuing mild MUF depressions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    85700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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