[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 22 10:20:32 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 360
km/s to 440 km/s during this period and the Bz component
of IMF stayed slightly positive (at times upto around +5nT)
for most part of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels for the next three days. The
solar wind stream may remain strenthened on 22 February
due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11121112
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21121112
Camden 4 11121112
Canberra 1 11010011
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 5 2--21112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb 6 Quiet
24 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
for the last 24 hours. Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity
may be expected on 22 February due to the effect of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Mostly quiet
conditions may be expected on 23 and 24 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in conditions may be
possible on 22 February, espcecially at mid and high latitude
locations due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on
this day. Mostly normal conditions may be expected on most
locations on 23 and 24 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Feb -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Feb -6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on 22 February due to an expected rise in the
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Mostly normal conditions
may be expected on most locations on 23 and 24 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 32600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list