[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 21 10:29:54 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 320 km/s
to 360 km/s during this period and the Bz component of IMF
stayed between +/-3nT of the normal value for most part of
the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22211222
Camden 3 11111112
Canberra 3 11110112
Hobart 4 21211112
Casey(Ant) 8 3-321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
22 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
23 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for
the last 24 hours. Some enhancements in geomagnetic activity
are expected on 21 and 22 February due to the effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
Mostly quiet conditions may be expected on 23 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in conditions may be
possible on 21 and 22 February, espcecially at mid and high
latitude locations due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days. Mostly normal conditions may be
expected on most locations on 23 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb -13 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Feb -13 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on 21 and 22 February due to an expected rise in
the geomagnetic activity levels on these days. Mostly normal
conditions may be expected on most locations on 23 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 20700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list