[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 20 10:26:02 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very
low. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 300
km/s to 340 km/s during this period and the Bz component
of IMF stayed between +/-3nT of the normal value for most
part of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 3 11110202
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 2 11010201
Camden 2 10100201
Canberra 1 0001--11
Hobart 2 11011201
Casey(Ant) 6 23221211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 2000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 4 Quiet
21 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
22 Feb 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels for
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected on 20
February. Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity are
expected on 21 and 22 February due to the effect of a high
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations with some possibility of minor to mild MUF
depressions at times on 20 February. Mild to moderate degradations
in conditions may be possible on 21 and 22 February, espcecially
at mid and high latitude locations due to an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Feb -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Feb -12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations on 20 February and periods
of minor to moderate degradations on 21 and 22 February may be
observed due to an expected rise in the geomagnetic activity
levels on 21 and 22 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 29200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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