[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 5 10:31:25 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar disk has no numbered sunspot regions. The
current solar wind speed is approximately 360 km/s and attained
a maximum of about 410 km/s early in the day. A sustained period
of southward directed interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) occurred
between about 0820 to 1700 UT with amplitude to about -10 nT. Bz
has been southward since about 2100 UT. The cause of the disturbance
is unknown.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to unsettled.
Unsettled with active to minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 32233333
Darwin 12 32223333
Townsville 13 32233333
Learmonth 14 42233333
Camden 12 32233332
Canberra 12 32233332
Hobart 12 32233332
Casey(Ant) 18 45433333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0000 0013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The unexplained disturbance in solar wind parameters
led to the increase in activity. There is the possibility of
disturbed conditions at high latitudes on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted to enhanced at Niue. Near predicted to
20% depressed at Vanimo with sporadic E 01-13 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
30% observed at times at Darwin and Cocos Is. 06-13 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Lower latitude stations experienced near predicted to
enhanced MUFs. MUFs at higher latitudes were near
predicted with depressions to 30%, mostly 11-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
06 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
07 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 February
and is current for interval 3-5 February. Sporadic E may disrupt
communications at times. MUFs expected to return to past day's
conditions as the effects of increased ionisation due to solar
activity subside.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 16300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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