[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 4 10:31:53 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar disk has no numbered sunspot regions. The
current solar wind speed is approximately 350 km/s and STEREO-B
indicates similar solar wind speeds for the next three days.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1910 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11210123
Darwin 5 21110123
Townsville 7 22221223
Learmonth 5 21210123
Camden 4 10110123
Canberra 2 00100013
Hobart 4 11210113
Casey(Ant) 7 22221123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The slight increase in activity in the last period is
the likely result of the shock in the solar wind that occurred
at 1910 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Niue frequencies were depressed to 30% 04-06 and 10-17
UT. No data for Vanimo.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressions to 35% until around 18 UT, then near
predicted at Cocos Is. and Townsville. Frequencies
depressed to 40% at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Lower latitude stations depressed to 30% 00-07 and
11-18 UT. Higher latitude stations depressed to 30%
08-15 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
Casey 15-17 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
05 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
06 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 February
and is current for interval 3-5 February. Sporadic E may disrupt
communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 41100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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