[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 6 10:30:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar disk has no numbered sunspot regions. The
current solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s over the last
24 hours. Similar solar wind speeds are expected over the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active periods early in the last 24 hours at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 32122212
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 6 32112202
Camden 5 22122111
Canberra 4 22112102
Hobart 5 32121101
Casey(Ant) 12 34331222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 4124 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Niue MUFs were near predicted to 30% depressed. Vanimo
MUFs were near predicted with enhancements 11-19 UT.
Some night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin MUFs were mostly near predicted to enhanced
with 35% depressions 07-08 UT. Cocos Is. MUFs were
depressed 20-50% and Townsville MUFs were near
predicted with depressions to 35% 00-08 UT. Night
spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Night
spread F observed. Sporadic E observed at stations
between 00-20 UT, obscuring the F region at times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
07 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
08 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5 February
and is current for interval 6-8 February. Sporadic E may disrupt
communications at times, particularly at mid-latitudes. Night
spread F may degrade communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 16.4 p/cc Temp: 35700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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