[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 24 10:45:21 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              74/11              72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Isolated B- and 
C-class flares were observed today, the largest flare being 
a C6.4 flare that peaked at 1017UT. Solar wind speed stayed 
between 340 and 360 km/s whereas the Bz component of the IMF 
ranged between approx. +/-3 nT for most part of the UT day 
today. B-class and some some C-class flares may be observed 
during the next two days. Solar activity is expected to stay 
at low levels for the next two days and then at very low 
levels on the third day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121112
      Darwin               4   11121112
      Townsville           5   21121122
      Learmonth            5   22121122
      Canberra             1   11110001
      Hobart               4   12121112
      Casey(Ant)          12   33332223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec     2    Quiet 
25 Dec     2    Quiet 
26 Dec     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
on most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal at low and mid 
latitude locations and normal to fair at high latitudes 
today. Strong sporadic E-layer influences were also observed 
at low and some mid latitude locations. Similar HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three days as no significant 
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Dec     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of degradations

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec     2    near predicted monthly values 
25 Dec     2    near predicted monthly values 
26 Dec     2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the 
Aus/NZ region today. Similar conditions may be expected for 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    28700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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