[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 23 10:24:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several B- and
C-class flares were observed today, the largest flare
being a C7.2 flare that peaked at 0456UT. This flare
was also associated to a Type II radio burst and a faint
CME. The CME is not expected to have any significant effect
on the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 360 to 340 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz
component of the IMF ranged between approx. +/-3 nT for
most part of the day. B-class and some C-class flares
may be observed during the next three days with a minor
possibility of isolated M-class flare. Solar activity is
expected to stay at low levels for the next two days and
at very low levels on the third day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 3 11011112
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 11110111
Casey(Ant) 8 23321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 3 Quiet
24 Dec 3 Quiet
25 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
on most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal at low and mid
latitude locations and normal to fair at high latitudes
today. Strong sporadic E-layer influences were also observed
at low and some mid latitude locations. Similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
24 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
25 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ region today. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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