[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 25 10:36:35 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed
first increased from 350 to 440 km/s and then decreased to 360
km/s during the UT day today whereas the Bz component of the
IMF ranged between approx. +/-3 nT for most part of the UT day
today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Darwin 2 12210001
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 3 22210001
Canberra 1 11200000
Hobart 3 22210000
Casey(Ant) 9 --422112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 2 Quiet
26 Dec 2 Quiet
27 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on
most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
today. Strong sporadic E-layer influences were also observed
at low and some mid latitude locations. Similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ region today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 37900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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