[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 12 10:25:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no further activity from region 1034 (N20E45). Activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next three days, however there remains
a slight chance of a B- or C-class flare from AR1034. The solar
wind speed remains slow (260km/s) and the IMF relatively stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 1 11001000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01100000
Casey(Ant) 7 33311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 3 Quiet
13 Dec 1 Quiet
14 Dec 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Dec -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Dec -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 9 December
and is current for interval 10-12 December. MUFs remain consistently
depressed across the Australian region in a typical summertime
response to low solar activity. Mid-low latitude (N.Aus) sites
were particularly affected with MUF depressions up to 35% overnight.
HF conditions were again poor at times with considerable sporadic
E, most notably during early afternoon hours at mid latitudes.
These conditions are expected to continue for the next three
days at least due to continuing weak solar activity. There may
be some gradual improvement as solar active regions currently
near the east limb rotate further onto the visible disk, however
these active regions are weak and likely to provide only slight
improvement to ionospheric conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 278 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 15700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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