[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 11 10:03:18 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Active 
region 1034 (N20E66) produced two flares in the period, one a 
C3.4 at 10:57UT and a smaller B1.4 at 14:52. Activity is 
expected to be Very Low for the next three days, however there 
is a small chance of another C-class flare from region 1034, a 
bxo beta spot group. The solar wind speed remains slow 
(280km/s) although there are signs of increasing solar wind 
variability with a jump in density and increasing IMF 
fluctuations. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211111
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            2   11121100
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               2   01210011
      Casey(Ant)           6   22312111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     3    Quiet 
12 Dec     3    Quiet 
13 Dec     1    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec   -37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   -25    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
12 Dec   -25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 9 December 
and is current for interval 10-12 December. MUFs were again
consistently depressed across the Australian region over the day, 
particularly at mid-low latitudes (N.Aus). HF conditions were 
poor at times with sporadic E observed at multiple stations, 
most notably during the day at mid latitudes. Ionospheric support 
is expected to continue to be depressed for the next three days 
due to continuing weak solar activity, although there should be 
some gradual improvement as solar active regions currently near 
the east limb rotate further onto the visible disk. HF conditions 
are likely to be variable with the possibility of further 
sporadic E degrading HF. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 292 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    14300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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