[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 11 10:03:18 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 1034 (N20E66) produced two flares in the period, one a
C3.4 at 10:57UT and a smaller B1.4 at 14:52. Activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next three days, however there
is a small chance of another C-class flare from region 1034, a
bxo beta spot group. The solar wind speed remains slow
(280km/s) although there are signs of increasing solar wind
variability with a jump in density and increasing IMF
fluctuations.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11211111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 2 11121100
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 2 01210011
Casey(Ant) 6 22312111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 3 Quiet
12 Dec 3 Quiet
13 Dec 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec -25 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Dec -25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
13 Dec -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 9 December
and is current for interval 10-12 December. MUFs were again
consistently depressed across the Australian region over the day,
particularly at mid-low latitudes (N.Aus). HF conditions were
poor at times with sporadic E observed at multiple stations,
most notably during the day at mid latitudes. Ionospheric support
is expected to continue to be depressed for the next three days
due to continuing weak solar activity, although there should be
some gradual improvement as solar active regions currently near
the east limb rotate further onto the visible disk. HF conditions
are likely to be variable with the possibility of further
sporadic E degrading HF.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 14300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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