[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 13 10:15:51 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no further activity from region 1034 (N20E30). Activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next three days, however there remains
a slight chance of a B- or C-class flare from AR1034. The solar
wind speed increased slightly over the UT day to 300km/s along
with some larger IMF fluctuations late in the UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11211122
Darwin 5 11211123
Townsville 6 21211123
Learmonth 5 11222122
Canberra 1 00100012
Hobart 3 00211112
Casey(Ant) 7 22-22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 3 Quiet
14 Dec 1 Quiet
15 Dec 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours, with some isolated Unsettled conditions late in the
UT day due to solar wind/IMF fluctuations. Expect mostly Quiet
conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Dec -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Increased solar and geomagnetic activity over the last
24 hours resulted in a strengthening of ionospheric support for
HF. HF conditions also improved over that of the previous few
days. MUFs however remain consistently depressed relative to
expected monthly values and this is expected to persist for at
least the next 3 days due to seasonal conditions and low solar
activity. There may be some gradual improvement as solar active
regions currently near the east limb rotate further onto the
visible disk, however these active regions are weak and likely
to provide only slight improvement to ionospheric conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 263 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list