[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 8 10:05:20 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No numbered
active regions on the visible disc although SOHO EIT and STEREO-B
show a weak bright region emerging on the eastern limb. Solar
wind speed dropped back below 350km/s and the IMF remained relatively
stable. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 5 21112122
Learmonth 4 11112221
Canberra 0 00001100
Hobart 2 11111110
Casey(Ant) 11 33323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 2100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 1 Quiet
09 Dec 1 Quiet
10 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity at mid- and low-latitudes was Quiet
over the UT day, with some Unsettled conditions at high latitudes.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec -25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Dec -25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were consistently depressed across the Australian
region over the day, with stronger depressions during the day
and at mid-low latitudes. Blanketing sporadic E-layer was also
observed for 1-2 hours around midday at several mid-latitude
stations. HF frequencies are expected to continue at moderately
depressed levels for the next three days due to continuing weak
solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 84000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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