[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 7 10:36:50 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No numbered active regions on the visible disc although
SOHO EIT284 and MDI shows a weak bright region with some magnetic
enhancement at mid eatern limb and another just emerging on the
eastern limb. Solar wind speed increased from 380 to 420km/sec
early in the UT day, due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction
region, and returned to 380km/sec by 12UT. Interplanetary Magnetic
Field IMF Bz component turned northwards at the time of the solar
wind speed increase and remained north for most of the day, shutting
of merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar activity is expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 22110112
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 4 22111111
Canberra 2 22100000
Hobart 3 23100010
Casey(Ant) 9 4-321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0010 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 3 Quiet
08 Dec 3 Quiet
09 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity at mid-latitudes was Quiet for
most of the day with a brief Unsettled period ~05UT due to the
solar wind speed increase from the co-rotating interaction region.
The IMF Bz northwards reduced the geoeffectiveness of the Vsw
increase. Polar latitudes however went to Active and Minor Storm
levels early in the UT day in response to the Vsw increase. Activity
level is expected to be Quiet for the next 2-3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec -10 about 0 15% below predicted monthly values
08 Dec -10 about 0 15% below predicted monthly values
09 Dec -10 about 0 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall depressions in MUFs were again observed with
north and near equatorial area showing the greatest decreases.
Near-equatorial stations (Cocos Is, Niue) again showed much greater
variability than mid-latitudes, despite the low geomagnetic activity.
Blanketing by sporadic E-layer occurred for 1-2 hours at several
mid-latitude stations (Sydney, Canberra, Norfolk Is). HF frequencies
expected to be similarly mildly depressed for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 257 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 84000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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