[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 6 10:47:00 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours with no active regions on the visible disc. Solar wind
speed remained low in the 230-260 km/s range till around 1500UT
and then increased to around 370 km/s due to the onset of a
co-rotating interaction region. Interplanetary Magnetic Field
IMF Bz component stayed close to normal value until around mid
day and then showed fluctuations between +/-5nT. Solar activity
is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three
days. However some strengthening in the solar wind stream may
continue on 06 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Mostly quiet, isolated
unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 11321222
Darwin 6 11211223
Townsville 8 11322232
Learmonth 6 01222232
Canberra 2 00210112
Hobart 5 01311122
Casey(Ant) 10 12422223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 4 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
07 Dec 3 Quiet
08 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly on quiet levels with
some unsettled periods on 05 December. Similar conditions are
expected on 06 decmber. Activity level is expected to decline
to quiet levels on 7 and 8 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations on 05 December with some MUF depressions
at low latitudes and blanketing by sporadic E layer on
low and some mid latitude stations. No significant variation
to the HF conditions is expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec -24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
07 Dec -24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
08 Dec -24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs and blanketing by sporadic
E-layer were observed in Aus/NZ regions on 05 December. No
significant variations in HF conditions is expected for the
next three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 253 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 14600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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