[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 5 10:47:24 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours with no active regions on the visible disc. Solar wind
speed remained low in the 230-260 km/s range. Interplanetary
Magnetic Field IMF Bz component stayed close to normal value
for most of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly
at quiet levels for the next three days. However some strengthening
in the solar wind stream may be possible on 05 and/or 06 December
due to a recurrent pattern.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 1 11110000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) 5 23221011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 3 Quiet
06 Dec 3 Quiet
07 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly on quiet levels on
04 December. Similar conditions are expected for the next three
days with the possibility of slight enhancements on 05 and 06
December due to a recurrent pattern.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most locations
on 04 December with some MUF depressions at low latitudes and
blanketing by sporadic E layer on low and some mid latitude stations.
No significant variation to the HF conditions is expected for
the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec -24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
06 Dec -24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
07 Dec -24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs and blanketing by sporadic
E-layer were observed in Aus/NZ regions on 04 December. No
significant variations in HF conditions is expected for the
next three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 252 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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