[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 4 10:33:30 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours with no active regions on the visible disc. Solar wind
speed remained low in the 260-280 km/s range although it was
more disturbed than yesterday. The expect high speed solar wind
stream has not taken effect and the southern edge of the small
coronal hole expected to produce it has possibly moved too far
north to be geoeffective. Interplanetary Magnetic Field IMF Bz
component was mildly (-2nT) southwards for most of the UT day,
enhancing merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar activity
is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels for the next three
days. The small active region visible to STEREO-B spacecraft
is now on the visible disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 11010111
Learmonth 1 11100101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01100000
Casey(Ant) 6 13321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 3 Quiet
05 Dec 3 Quiet
06 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity at Quiet levels at mid-latitudes.
Some Unsettled periods at polar latitudes 05-08UT due to the
prolonged mild IMF Bz southwards. The expected high speed solar
wind speed from a small coronal hole has not occrred. See Solar
section. Expect Quiet conditions at mid-latitudes for the next
3 days with possibly brief Unsettled periods if some of the edge
of the high speed solar wind stream contacts the geomagnetic
field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec -15 about 0 20% below predicted monthly values
05 Dec -15 about 0 20% below predicted monthly values
06 Dec -15 about 0 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slight nightime depletions were observed across Aus/NZ
mid-latitude regions over the last 24 hours. Near equatorial
stations observed large variations, especially at Cocos Is with
a large post-noon depression, despite quiet geomagnetic conditions,
so possibly caused by neutral winds in the thermosphere. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Blanketing sporadic-E
(Esb) was observed for 1-2 hour periods at many east coast stations
(Bri, Syd, Cnb) around local noon, but less extensive than earlier
in the week.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 275 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 13600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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