[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 3 10:21:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours with no active regions on the visible disc. Solar wind
speed remained low at 260-280 km/s. The small coronal hole to
the west of centre of the disc has not yet rotated into geoeffective
position, but is expected to in the next 24 hours. It is likely
associated with an IMF sector boundary and associated disturbances.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field IMF Bz component was northwards
from 06-19UT, shutting off merging with the geomagnetic field.
Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels for
the next three days. The STEREO-B spacecraft has a small active
region in it's view which will reach the visible disc in 1-2
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 2 21110011
Learmonth 2 11120011
Canberra 0 010000-0
Hobart 1 11110010
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 3 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity at Quiet levels at mid-latitudes.
Some Unsettled periods at polar latitudes before the IMF Bz turned
northwards at 06UT and merging with the geomagnetic field shut
off. Possibly Unsettled in the ~24 hours time due to moderately
enhanced solar wind speed from a small coronal hole rotating
towards geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec -10 about 0 15% below predicted monthly values
04 Dec -5 near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -10 about 0 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nightime enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ
mid-latitude regions over the last 24 hours. Near equatorial stations observed
large variations, including night depletions, despite quiet
geomagnetic conditions, so possibly caused by neutral winds in the thermosphere.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with a slight
overall increase in frequencies to near predicted monthly median
levels in 24 hours if geomagnetic activity is enhanced by a coronal
hole induced high speed solar wind stream. Blanketing Esb was
observed at many stations but less than yesterday.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 265 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 15900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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