[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 9 10:09:47 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No numbered
active regions on the visible disc although SOHO EIT and STEREO-B
show two weak bright regions emerging on the eastern limb. Solar
wind speed dropped back to 300km/s and the IMF remained relatively
stable over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 1 11101000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11000001
Casey(Ant) 6 3-221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 1 Quiet
10 Dec 3 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours, with some Unsettled conditions at high latitudes early
in the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Dec -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 7 December
and is current for interval 8-9 December. MUFs were consistently
depressed across the Australian region over the day, with stronger
depressions during the day and at equatorial and low latitudes.
Sporadic E-layer, blanketing at times, was observed at a number
of stations, particularly early in the local day. HF frequencies
are expected to continue at moderately depressed levels for the
next three days due to continuing weak solar activity, trending
upwards as solar active regions move onto the visible solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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