[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 22 09:18:30 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed
decreased gradually over the UT day from 550 to around 450 km/s
at time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22322211
Darwin 5 21212211
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 7 11323211
Hobart 7 21323211
Casey(Ant) 8 23322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3432 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 5 Quiet
23 Aug 4 Quiet
24 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slightly but remains elevated
under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component
of the IMF has remained mostly neutral limiting geomagnetic activity
to isolated unsettled intervals at mid latitudes. Isolated active
periods were observed at high latitudes. Expect isolated unsettled
periods at mid to high latitudes day one with conditions tending
to quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of sporadic-E conditions at Cocos Islands local
evening/night. Variable enhancements/depressions at Darwin over
the UT day. Weak ionosphere generally in Antarctic region with
periods of sporadic-E at Casey. Expect mostly normal HF conditions
next three days with mild disturbance at higher latitudes day
one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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