[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:42:47 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed
increased steadily over the UT day to around 550 km/s at time
of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 33222122
Darwin 7 33221022
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 23222011
Hobart 8 23223122
Casey(Ant) 11 43322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1013 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 6 Quiet to unsettled
22 Aug 5 Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the IMF has
remained mostly neutral limiting geomagnetic activity to isolated
unsettled intervals at low to mid latitudes. Active to minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes. Expect continuing
unsettled periods day one with conditions tending to quiet days
two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extended periods of sporadic-E conditions at Cocos and
Niue islands local day. Extended periods of spread-F conditions
at Brisbane and Norfolk Island local evening/night. Weak ionosphere
generally in Antarctic region with periods of sporadic-E at Casey.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days with some
disturbance at higher latitudes day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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