[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 23 09:31:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed
remains elevated under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream
but should decline today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 13222122
Darwin 6 13212022
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 02111011
Hobart 6 23222111
Casey(Ant) 8 23322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2132 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 5 Quiet
24 Aug 4 Quiet
25 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at around 500 km/s.
There was one significant period of southward IMF Bz early in
the UT day leading to a period of unsettled geomagnetic conditions
between 03-06UT. Otherwise the geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
There is a chance of isolated unsettled intervals on day one
(23 Aug) as solar wind parameters remain mildly elevated. Conditions
should decline to generally quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed at
Niue, Norfolk Island and Brisbane, mainly local night. Also isolated
periods Fs at Darwin. Extended periods of sporadic-E at Cocos
Islands, with isolated periods at Darwin. Weak ionosphere local
night S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect similar conditions next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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