[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 12 09:49:49 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds persisted at mildly elevated levels during the past 24
hours ranging from approximately 480-560 km/s. Solar wind speeds
are expected to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 33223322
Darwin 9 32223312
Townsville 11 33223322
Learmonth 15 33234422
Camden - --------
Canberra 9 32223311
Hobart 10 33223311
Casey(Ant) 14 34333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2222 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 6 Quiet
14 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels were observed at high latitude
stations during the past 24 hours due to a persistent coronal
hole solar wind stream. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were
observed for low-mid latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for 12 April with active
and isolated storm levels possible fo high latitudes. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for
13-14 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 15% at times to near predicted
monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 5-15% were observed at times,
otherwise ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced
during the past 24 hours. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
were observed at times at most stations during the past 24 hours.
Similar ionospheric conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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