[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 11 09:44:53 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds remained mildly elevated during the past 24 hours ranging
from approximately 450-550 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22222232
Darwin 7 11222232
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 10 22223241
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 11212231
Hobart 6 11222230
Casey(Ant) 12 33322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3432 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 6 Quiet
12 Apr 4 Quiet
13 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active to storm levels were observed at some
high latitude stations during the past 24 hours due to a coronal
hole solar wind stream, with mostly quiet to unsettled levels
observed for low-mid latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly quiet for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 10-20% at times otherwise mostly near
predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 10-20% were observed at times
primarily during the local day in northern regions, otherwise
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced during
the past 24 hours. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
at most stations during the past 24 hours. Similar ionospheric
conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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