[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 11 09:44:53 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind 
speeds remained mildly elevated during the past 24 hours ranging 
from approximately 450-550 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222232
      Darwin               7   11222232
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth           10   22223241
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             6   11212231
      Hobart               6   11222230
      Casey(Ant)          12   33322233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3432 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr     6    Quiet 
12 Apr     4    Quiet 
13 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active to storm levels were observed at some
high latitude stations during the past 24 hours due to a coronal
hole solar wind stream, with mostly quiet to unsettled levels
observed for low-mid latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly quiet for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 10-20% at times otherwise mostly near
      predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 10-20% were observed at times 
primarily during the local day in northern regions, otherwise 
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced during 
the past 24 hours. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed 
at most stations during the past 24 hours. Similar ionospheric 
conditions are expected for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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