[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 10 09:49:20 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds increased to approximately 500 km/s during the past 24
hours under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over the next
24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 23222321
Darwin 8 22222322
Townsville 11 33322322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 22222220
Hobart 9 23222331
Casey(Ant) 11 333223-1
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0011 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 4 Quiet
12 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Storm levels were observed at high latitude stations
during the past 24 hours due to a coronal hole solar wind stream,
with activity at remaining latitudes only reaching unsettled
levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
unsettled to quiet for the next few days as the coronal hole
wind stream abates.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Deperessed 10-20% at times during local day,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Deperessed 10-20% at times during local day,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 10-20% were observed at times
primarily during the local day in northern regions, otherwise
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced during
the past 24 hours. Isolated Spread-F/Sporadic-E conditions were
also observed at times. Similar conditions are expected for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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