[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 9 09:47:42 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
paramaters suggest the presence of a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) associated with the leading edge of the anticipated
coronal hole wind stream during the latter half of the UT day
of 8 April. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase to mild
levels during 9 April and slowly decline into 10 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12211222
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 12212221
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 01100111
Hobart 3 12101111
Casey(Ant) 6 22212222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
isolated active periods and possible minor storm
levels at high latitudes.
10 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Slightly elevated geomagnetic activity is expected 9
April due to a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 15-30% were observed at times
primarily during the local day across the Aus/NZ region, otherwise
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced during
the past 24 hours. Isolated Spread-F/Sporadic-E conditions were
also observed at times. Similar conditions are expected for the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 48500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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