[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 8 09:45:17 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind 
speeds are expected to become mildly elevated during 9-10 April 
as a small coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21211111
      Darwin               3   21200111
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            2   21201100
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               2   11210000
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     4    Quiet 
09 Apr    15    Quiet to unsettled 
10 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 8 April. Mildly 
elevated geomagnetic activity is expected 9 April due to an
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 10-20% were observed at times 
primarily during the local day across the Aus/NZ region, otherwise 
ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced during 
the past 24 hours. Isolated Spread-F/Sporadic-E conditions were 
also observed at times. Similar conditions are expected for the 
next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    59200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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