[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 13 09:51:57 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds declined slowly during the past 24 hours from approximately
560 km/s down to 440 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to
continue to decline over the next 2 days. Solar wind speeds are
expected to become mildly elevated late in the UT day of 15 April
and into 16 April as a small coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 23211212
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 23221212
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 12201112
Hobart 4 12211211
Casey(Ant) 12 34321223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3222 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 5 Quiet
14 Apr 4 Quiet
15 Apr 10 Mostly quiet with the chance of isolated active
periods and possible minor storm levels at high
latitudes late in the UT day.
COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels were observed at times
at high latitude stations during the past 24 hours with mostly
quiet levels observed for low-mid latitudes. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be predominantly quiet for 13-14 April. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase again with isolated active periods
possible late in the UT day of 15 April and into 16 April as
a small coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 0 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions of 5-15% were observed at times,
otherwise ionospheric conditions were mostly normal to enhanced
during the past 24 hours. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
were observed at times at most stations during the past 24 hours.
Similar ionospheric conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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