[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 20 09:19:10 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on 19 September.
The disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed remained
between around 340 km/s and 360 km/s for most parts of the
UT day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (BZ) fluctuated mostly between +/-3nT today,
staying negative for relatively longer periods of time. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11212121
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 3 10112121
Hobart 5 11222121
Casey(Ant) 7 23311121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 1233 3101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 3 Quiet
21 Sep 3 Quiet
22 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quite
levels today and similar conditions may be expected for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of MUF depressions and enhancements
observed alonwith periods of minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in most
parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 35100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list