[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 21 09:46:04 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on 20 September.
The disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed remained
between around 300 km/s and 340 km/s for most parts of the
UT day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (BZ) varied mostly between +/-3nT today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12111101
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 12001000
Canberra 1 12001000
Hobart 4 12121102
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0122 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 3 Quiet
22 Sep 3 Quiet
23 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained at mostly quite
levels today and similar conditions can be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
23 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions at
low latitudes and minor to significant degradations at
high latitudes were observed today. Poor ionisation in
the ionosphere due to continued very low levels of solar
activity seems to be the reason for these degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs. Mid-latitude
locations remained less affected by this phenomenon.
Similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of enhancements and depressions in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Sep -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Sep -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs were observed today, especially at low and high latitudes.
Poor ionisation due to continued very low levels of solar
activity seems to be the reason for this. Mid latitudes were
less affected by this phenomenon. Similar HF conditions may
be expected across Auz/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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