[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 19 09:36:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on 18 September.
The disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed decreased
from around 380 km/s to around 350 km/s during the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (BZ) stayed slightly to moderately negative
(at times upto around -6nT) for most parts of the UT day
today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Mostly quiet with
some unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 12332101
Darwin 6 22221---
Townsville 10 22332---
Learmonth 7 12232---
Camden 4 11322001
Canberra 6 12332100
Hobart 8 12432101
Casey(Ant) 6 23222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2300 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 3 Quiet
20 Sep 3 Quiet
21 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained at mostly quite
levels today with some unsettled periods. The activity level
is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of MUF depressions and enhancements
observed with degraded HF conditions at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in most
parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 16300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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