[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 18 09:23:38 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low on 17 September.
The disc remains spotless. Due to the anticipated further
weakening in the effect of the coronal hole, the solar wind
speed gradually decreased from around 490 km/s to 390 km/s
during the UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (BZ) stayed slightly negative
(upto around -2nT) for the first 3 hours of the UT day and
then stayed moderately positive (upto around +5nT) through
most parts of the remaining day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Darwin 2 2201000-
Townsville 4 2221111-
Learmonth 1 2101000-
Camden 1 12000001
Canberra 1 12000001
Hobart 1 12100000
Casey(Ant) 4 23220001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1432 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 3 Quiet
19 Sep 3 Quiet
20 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the anticipated further weakening in the
effect of the recurrent coronal hole, the geomagnetic
activity declined to mostly quite levels today. The
activity level is expected to remain at similar levels for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of MUF depressions and enhancements
observed with minor to significant degradations in HF
conditions at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 94300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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