[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 17 09:45:20 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low on 16 September.
The disc remains spotless. Due to the anticipated weakening
in the effect of the coronal hole, the solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 550 km/s to around 500 km/s during
the UT day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (BZ) showed small fluctuations (between
approximately +/-3nT) until around 0900UT and then stayed
slightly southwards for most parts of the remaining UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low level for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 13332211
Darwin 6 13221211
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 6 12231221
Camden 6 13321111
Canberra 8 13332211
Hobart 10 13432211
Casey(Ant) 12 34332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 2334 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
18 Sep 4 Quiet
19 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the anticipated weakening in the effect of
the recurrent coronal hole, the geomagnetic activity declined
to mostly quite to unsettled levels today. The activity level
is expected to further decline to mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods on 17 September and stay mostly at quiet
levels on 18 and 19 Septebmer.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations from 17 to 19 September with some possibility of
isolated periods of minor degradations at high latitudes on
17 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of MUF depressions and enhancements
observed with periods of minor to significant
degradations in HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in most
parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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