[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 9 09:19:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at the Very Low level today.
The solar disk continued to remain spotless. Solar wind speed
decreased from 580 km/s and stabilised around 540 km/s as the
effects of the recent coronal hole subside. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz) stayed between
+/-4nT, oscillating north-south but with a period of mostly southwards
(merging with the geomagnetic field) 17-23UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain at the Very Low level for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 9 23222232
Learmonth 8 22232222
Camden 6 22222121
Canberra 6 22222121
Hobart 7 22232121
Casey(Ant) 11 333322-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3200 2131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet at mid and low latitudes
with occasional Unsettled periods. Polar latitudes were at Quiet
to Active levels, with Storm conditions later in the day due
to the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF Bz) having a period of mostly southwards 17-23UT, merging
with the geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to gradually decline and stabilise at Quiet over the next day
as the effect of the recent solar coronal-hole high-speed solar-wind
stream declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep -5 about 15% below predicted monthly values
10 Sep -5 about 15% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF values across Australian/NZ regions were slightly
below average at mid-latitudes as the ionosphere recovers from
the recent geomagnetic activity from a solar coronal hole. However
there were both large depressions and enhancements at equatorial
latitudes, particularly a morning depression. Conditions are
expected to be normal to slightly depressed for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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