[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 8 09:43:08 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: As anticipated, solar activity remained at very
low level today as well. The solar disk continued to remain
spotless. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 640
km/s to around 540 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day today, staying
positive for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22213131
Darwin 6 22113130
Townsville 8 22223231
Learmonth 10 2221324-
Camden 7 22213130
Canberra 7 22213130
Hobart 7 22213131
Casey(Ant) 11 333232-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3101 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
09 Sep 4 Quiet
10 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline
over the next two days as the currently going on coronal hole
effect weakens further. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated
unsettled periods on 08 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions were observed at high latitudes over the
last 24 hours. Minor to mild degradations in conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected on high latitudes on 08
September. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for most
locations on 09 and 10 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of enhancements, depressions and
minor to significant degradations observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 2 near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 3 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across Australian/NZ regions are expected
to stay mostly at normal levels for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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