[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 7 09:47:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: As anticipated, solar activity remained at very
low level today as well. The solar disk continued to remain
spotless. The solar wind speed gradually increased from 500
km/s to around 600 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
between +/-4nT for most parts of the UT day today, staying
positive for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22122212
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 21123222
Camden 5 22122211
Canberra 7 22123212
Hobart 6 21123212
Casey(Ant) 11 33332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 55 (Unsettled)
Gnangara 67 (Active)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2300 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 7 Quiet to unsettled
08 Sep 5 Quiet
09 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
decline over the next two days as the currently geo-effective
coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position. Mostly quiet
to unsetteld conditions are expected on 07 September. Mostly
quiet conditions may be expected on 08 and 09 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to significant degradations
in HF conditions were observed at high latitudes over the
last 24 hours. Minor to moderate degradations in conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected on high latitudes
on 07 September. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for most locations on 08 and 09 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods of minor
to significant degradations in HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across Australian/NZ regions are
expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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