[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 6 09:43:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind stream
showed a gradual weakening trend today as the solar wind
speed decreased from 550 km/s to around 500 km/s over the
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) stayed between +/-2nT for most parts of the UT day
today. The currently going on coronal effect is expected to
further weaken over the next two days. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 21123122
Darwin 5 12112122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 21123121
Camden 5 11123112
Canberra 4 11123011
Hobart 5 11123121
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 33 6644 4321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
07 Sep 6 Mostly quiest, isolated unsettled periods possible.
08 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to further decline
over the next two days as the currently geo-effective coronal
hole moves out of geoeffective position. Mostly quiet to
unsetteld conditions are expected on 06 September. Mostly
quiet conditions with the possibility of isolated unsettled
periods on 07 September and quiet conditions are expected on
08 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As anticipated, minor to mild degradations in HF
conditions and depressions in MUFs at low and mid latitudes
and minor to significant degradations and depressions at high
latitudes were observed over the last 24 hours. Minor to
moderate degradations in conditions and depressions in MUFs
may be expected on high latitudes on 06 September and at times
on 07 September. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for
most locations on 08 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
minon to mild depressions and degradations.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of enhancements, and minor to
significant depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep -1 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at
normal levels for the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradation and possible MUF depressions on 06
September. Conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 562 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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