[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 5 09:53:05 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind went up
from 470 to 600 km/s by 1800UT and then gradually decreased
to 550 km/s by around 2330UT. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southwards (upto
around -10nT) by 0400UT and then showed fluctuations between
approximately +/-7nT until around 1000UT and then gradually
settled close to the normal value. The currently going on
coronal hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream
strengthened for the next two days. Expect solar activity to
remain very low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to minor storm
with isolated periods of major storms recorded
at some high latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 44433321
Darwin 16 44333322
Townsville 20 44434332
Learmonth 22 55334321
Camden 22 44544321
Canberra 22 4454-321
Hobart 18 3453-321
Casey(Ant) 16 44432322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1222 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 16 active
06 Sep 12 Unsettled
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 3 September
and is current for interval 4-5 September. Geomagnetic activity
is expected remain elevated for the next two days due to the
effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent
coronal hole. Mostly active conditions on 05 and unsettled conditions
on 06 September are expected. Activity level is expected to decline
to mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 07 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be expected on low and mid latitudes for the next
two days with the expectations of minor to significant degradations
and depressions on high latitudes during this period. HF conditions
are expected to return to mostly normal conditions on most locations
on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Irregular periods of enhancement, depressions and
degradations observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Sep -2 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect minor to mild MUF depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions across Aus/NZ regions on 05 September. Conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal for the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 10.1 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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