[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 4 09:33:11 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind went from
330 to 470 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward reaching +14nT,
however there was a short period of about an hour where it dipped
to -9 nT between 07 and 08 UT. Expect solar activity to remain very
low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 12321322
Darwin 9 12321332
Townsville 10 22322332
Learmonth 9 12321332
Camden 8 12321322
Canberra 8 12321322
Hobart 5 11211222
Casey(Ant) 9 2-431112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 18 active
05 Sep 16 active
06 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions for
the next two days (04 and 05 September) due to a recurrent coronal
hole and a return to unsettle to quiet conditions on 6 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Sep -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect minor MUF depressions in the in the Equatorial
and north Australian Regions due to low ionisation in the ionosphere
resulting from very low solar activity. The geomagntic activity
on 4 and 5 September is not expected to affect south Australia
or Antarctic HF conditions, other than a slight degradation in
HF propagation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 31500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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