[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 10 09:48:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at the Very Low level today.
The solar disk continued to remain spotless. Solar wind speed
decreased further from 540 to 480km/sec as the effects of the
recent coronal hole still subside. IMF Bz had a moderate southward
turning 20-22UT, enough to be geoeffective at polar latitudes.
Another recurrent coronal hole is visibiel on SOHO EIT 195 and
STEREO-B imagery and expected to be geoeffective ~14th Sept.
Solar activity is expected to remain at the Very Low level for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22211012
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 3 22111002
Camden 3 22201002
Canberra 3 22201002
Hobart 3 12201002
Casey(Ant) 10 34321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 4 Quiet
12 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet at mid and low latitudes,
more settled than yesterday. Polar latitudes were at Quiet to
Active levels, with Storm conditions at the end of the UT day
due to IMF Bz southward turning 20-22UT, merging with the geomagnetic
field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stabilise at Quiet
levels over the next 2-3 days as the effect of the recent solar
coronal-hole high-speed solar-wind stream has passed. Another
recurrent coronal hole is visible on SOHO EIT 195 and STEREO-B
imagery and expected to be geoeffective ~14th Sept.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Recent equatorial disturbances evident. See Australasian
region summary.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 1 about 15% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 1 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF values across Australian/NZ regions were again slightly
below average at mid-latitudes as the ionosphere is still recovering
from the recent geomagnetic activity from a solar coronal hole.
There was evidence of strong nighttime spread F at southern latitudes
(Hobart). There were again both large depressions and enhancements
at equatorial latitudes, Cocos Is and Vanimo having a strong
foF2 peak in the local morning and a strong depletion in the
afternoon and night. The western Pacific (Niue) showed a similar
enhancement although smaller and lasting most of the day, followed
by a weaker depletion. Sub-equatorial sites (Darwin, Townsville)
also had the same pattern but weaker. Cocos also had very strong
blanketing Es at dusk. There was a slight dusk/night depletion
across mid-latitudes. Conditions are expected to be normal to
slightly depressed for the next 2-3 days and another recurrent
coronal hole should take effect ~14th Sept.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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