[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 10:30:45 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 68/2 69/3
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed measured
by the ACE spacecraft is approximately 670 km/s and is expected
to remain elevated for the next 2 days. On 01 November the solar
wind should return to normal levels for the near Earth environment.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly
northward over the last 24 hours and fluctuated between +/- 5nT.
However, between 05-06 UT Bz dipped to -10 nT allowing for
reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 23423333
Darwin 12 23322333
Townsville 15 333-----
Learmonth 18 33433433
Camden 11 23323322
Canberra 13 24323323
Hobart 15 24423332
Casey(Ant) 16 --532322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 83 (Minor storm)
Gnangara 158 (Severe storm)
Canberra 97 (Minor storm)
Hobart 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0011 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
31 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 27 October
and is current for interval 29-30 October. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next two
days due to an increase in the solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Oct -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: The Antarctic regions showed weak ionogram traces early
in the UT day 29 October. Expect mild depressions in the Antarctic
and southern Australian regions due to an increase in geomagnetic
activity for the next three days. Equatorial and northern Australian
regions may also continue to have slightly depressed conditions
during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 80900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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