[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 29 10:51:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 68/2
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed
measured by the ACE spacecraft showed an increase from 300
km/s to approximately 550 km/s due to recurrent coronal hole.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly northward over the last 24 hours and fluctuated between
+/- 5nT. Expect elevated solar wind levels for the next three
days. SOHO spacecraft LASCO C3 imager showed an CME expelled
from the west limb at approximately 0042UT 27 October and last
visible on 0442UT 28 October. The CME will not likely be
geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 12221233
Darwin 7 11221233
Townsville 7 2222222-
Learmonth 9 12231233
Camden 7 11220233
Canberra 7 01221233
Hobart 6 11221223
Casey(Ant) 12 23-41233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
30 Oct 16 active
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 27 October
and is current for interval 29-30 October. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next
three day due to an increase in the solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Oct -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Oct -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Expect mild depressions in the Antarctic and southern
Australian regions due to an increase in geomagnetic activity
for the next three days. Equatorial and northern Australian regions
may also continue to have slightly depressed conditions during
local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 75900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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