[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 28 10:18:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind is at normal
levels measured at the ACE spacecraft. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward over the last
24 hours. A recurrent coronal hole should be geo-effective late
in the UT day of 28 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21200000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 4 2221111-
Learmonth 1 20100001
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 1 11200000
Hobart 1 10200000
Casey(Ant) 5 3--11111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
30 Oct 16 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually increase
over the next three days due to an expected effect of the high
speed solar wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Oct -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mild depressions noted at low to mid latitudes due to
very low solar activity conditions. Late in the UT day 28 October
and on 29 and 30 October expect mild depressions at high latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind due to a recurrent coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 86900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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