[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 31 10:25:26 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Spot group noted at N35E16 containing 3 spots with a
simple bipolar magnetic class. The leader polarity is negative
and the group is in the northern hemisphere indicative of a cycle
24 spot. The solar wind speed measured by the ACE spacecraft
remained around 650 km/s, however is expected to steadily decrease
31 October and return to normal levels by 01 November. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between +/-
5nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 23233332
Darwin 11 22233323
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 13 23233432
Camden 11 23232332
Canberra 12 23233332
Hobart 11 23232332
Casey(Ant) 16 4--42332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Camden 45 (Unsettled)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 61 (Active)
Hobart 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 11 2241 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov 6 Quiet
02 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels today, 31 October, and return to quiet levels by 01 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Antarctic regions showed weak ionogram traces, however
near normal HF conditions. Expect the Antarctic and southern
Australian regions to continue to have normal levels with a slight
possiblilty of mildly depressed conditions on 31 October. Equatorial
and northern Australian regions may also continue to have slightly
depressed conditions during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 669 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 264000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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