[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 10:12:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed remained close to 350 km/s by
1500UT and then showed a graudal increase to around 440
km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the IMF remained
slightly positive by around 1000UT and then showed minor to
moderate (upto approx. +/-6nT) fluctuations on both sides of
the normal value during the rest of the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21112222
Darwin 6 21012223
Townsville 7 2221232-
Learmonth 8 22112323
Camden 4 11002222
Canberra 3 10002222
Hobart 4 11002222
Casey(Ant) 10 32322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1201 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 6 Quiet
24 Oct 5 Quiet
25 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
on 22 October and similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As a result of weak ionisation due to continued very
low solar activity, depressions in MUFs were observed mainly
on low latitudes on 22 October. Similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day
with some periods of depressions,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
some periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct -14 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
24 Oct -14 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
25 Oct -14 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed in the equatorial/Northern
Australian regions as a result of weak ionisation due to continued
very low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 75000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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