[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The Sun is spotless with solar wind speed ranging from
approximately 360 to 430 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Darwin               3   11112102
      Townsville           7   22223122
      Learmonth            3   11112101
      Camden               4   12112111
      Canberra             3   22102110
      Hobart               4   12112111
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--22222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   2000 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct     5    Quiet 
23 Oct     5    Quiet 
24 Oct     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Oct    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 50%
      at times between 09 to 12 and 14 to 17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 50%
      at times and mostly between 10 and 20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly with occasional depressions to
      30% between 11 to 19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
23 Oct    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
24 Oct    -5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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