[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 21 10:37:15 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed stayed between
340 and 380 km/s until around 1100UT and then showed a
gradual increase to around 410 km/s by 2300UT. The
north-south component of IMF (Bz) stayed mostly positive
until around 1000UT and then showed fluctuations between
+/-5nT during the rest of the day, staying positive for
relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 6 2222221-
Learmonth 3 21101211
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 2 11101111
Hobart 2 11101111
Casey(Ant) 6 ---22122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1101 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 4 Quiet
22 Oct 4 Quiet
23 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to stay
at quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs were observed mainly on low
latitudes due to weak ionisation due to continued very low
levels of solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct -14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed in the equatorial/Northern
Australian regions as a result of weak ionisation due to continued
very low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 27500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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