[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 20 09:58:21 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT:
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22123332
Darwin 8 12122332
Townsville 10 2222333-
Learmonth 10 22123431
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 11023332
Hobart 8 11123331
Casey(Ant) 11 33322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 5 Quiet
21 Oct 5 Quiet
22 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity remains at nominal levels. The Bz
component of the IMF showed moderate fluctuations about neutral
over the UT day. There was a sustained period of mild to moderate
southward bias over the second half of the UT day resulting in
unsettled geomagnetic conditions at all latitudes. Expect continuing
mostly quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated
unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed most low latitude stations
due to low solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Oct -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions
as a result of weak ionisation due to low solar activity. Mild
depressions extending at times to central Aus regions. S
Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions mostly near normal. Expect similar
ionospheric conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 284 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 10300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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