[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 24 10:31:10 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 
hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 440 km/s 
to 360 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component 
of the IMF remained close to the normal value almost the whole 
day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low 
levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Townsville           6   22221---
      Learmonth            5   2211----
      Camden               2   12210000
      Canberra             3   22210000
      Hobart               4   22210111
      Casey(Ant)           8   34-21111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0000 1233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct     4    Quiet 
25 Oct     4    Quiet 
26 Oct     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
today and similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
26 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: As a result of weak ionisation due to continued 
very low solar activity, depressions in MUFs were observed 
mainly on low latitudes on 23 October. Similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Oct   -19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      some periods of depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct   -16    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
25 Oct   -16    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
26 Oct   -16    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed in the equatorial/Northern 
Australian regions as a result of weak ionisation due to continued 
very low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    59700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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